EUR/USD Elliott Wave Analysis
Published by
Unknown
Technical Analysis of Financial Market, Foreign Exchange analysis, Profesional trader.
12:07 AM
Our preferred count on the daily chart remains that a wave (II) from 1.2329 ended at 1.5145 with A-leg ended at 1.4720, followed by wave B at 1.2457, the wave C from there was also a 3 legged move and is labeled as (a): 1.3739, (b): 1.2885, the wave iii of the 5-waver (c) from 1.2885 has ended at 1.4339 and wave iv is a triangle ended at 1.3878 and wave v formed a top at 1.5145. The decline from there is a 5-waver (C) with minor wave (i) of I of (C) ended at 1.4218 with wave (ii) ended at 1.4580, wave (iii) ended at 1.3267 and wave (iv) ended at 1.3692 and wave (v) ended at 1.1876, this is also the low of wave I of (C) and wave II has possibly ended at 1.4940, hence wave III is now in progress with a diagonal wave 1 ended at 1.2042, wave 2 already met indicated retracement target at 1.3833-35 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of
On the upside, whilst recovery to 1.3490-00 cannot be ruled out, reckon 1.3540-50 would limit upside and bring another decline to aforesaid downside targets. Only above resistance at 1.3651 would dampen this bearish view and risk test of resistance at 1.3700, if euro is able to close above this level on a daily basis, this would signal the first leg of major decline from 1.3993 top has ended and risk a stronger rebound to 1.3800-10 and possibly to 1.3850-60 but upside should be limited to 1.3900 and bring another decline later. Only break of 1.3996-1.4000 (previous chart point and psychological resistance) would signal the rise from 1.12042 (2012 low) has resumed in wave (c) of larger degree wave 2 for gain to 1.4045-50 (50% projection of 1.2755-1.3894 measuring from 1.3477) but reckon upside would be limited to 1.4140-50 and 1.4233-48 (1.618 times projection of 1.2755-1.3453 measuring from 1.3105 and previous chart resistance) should hold from here, bring another strong retreat later.
Recommendation: Sell at 1.3545 for 1.3250 with stop above 1.3645.
Euro's long-term uptrend started from 0.8228 (26 Oct 2000) with an impulsive structure. The rise from 0.8228 to 0.9593 (5 Jan 2001) is labeled as wave I, the retreat to 0.8352 (6 Jul 2001) is wave II and the rally to 1.3670 (31 Dec 2004) is wave III. Wave IV from there ended at 1.1640 (15 Nov 2005), the subsequent upmove to 1.6040 (July 15, 2008) is treated as wave V, the major selloff from the record high of 1.6040 to 1.2329 (October 27, 2008) signals a reversal has taken place with (I) leg ended at 1.2329 and once (II) ended at 1.5145, wave (III) itself is an extended move with I: 1.1876 and complex wave II should be limited to 1.5145, bring wave III decline later.
0 comments:
Post a Comment