USD/CHF Elliott Wave Analysis
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Technical Analysis of Financial Market, Foreign Exchange analysis, Profesional trader.
12:08 AM
Our preferred count on the daily chart is that early selloff to 0.9630 is an end of the larger degree wave III and major correction is unfolding from there with a leg ended at 1.2298 (Nov 2008 with (a): 1.0625, (b):1.0011 and (c):1.2298), wave b ended at 0.9910 with (a): 1.0370, (b): 1.1967, (c): 0.9910. The rise from there to 1.1730 is the wave c which also marked the end of wave IV and wave V has possibly ended at 0.7068.
On the downside, expect pullback to be limited to 0.8970-80 and bring another rise to aforesaid upside targets. Only a break below support at 0.8898 would abort and suggest top is possibly formed instead, risk test of support at 0.8856, a break of this level would shift risk to downside and suggest the rebound from 0.8699 has ended instead, risk weakness to minor support at 0.8800, however, downside should be limited to 0.8750 and support at 0.8699 should holdon first testing. A drop below said support at 0.8699 would signal recent decline has resumed as the wave c of larger degree wave B and extend the fall from 0.9972 top for a stronger correction of early major rise from 0.7068 to 0.8600 and then 0.8550.
Recommendation: Hold long entered at 0.8910 for 0.9110 with stop below 0.8910.
Dollar's long-term downtrend started from 2.9343 (Feb 1995) and it was unfolding as a (A)-(B)-(C) with (A): 1.1100, (B): 1.8310 (26 Oct 2000), then followed by another impulsive wave (C) with wave III ended at 0.9630 (Mar 2008). Under this count, correction in wave IV has possibly ended at 1.1730 and wave V already broke below support at 0.9630 and met indicated downside target at 0.7500 and 0.7400. The reversal from 0.7068 suggests the wave V has possibly ended and the breach of resistance at 0.9595 add credence to this view and further gain towards psychological resistance at 1.0000 would be seen later.
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